Climate change is anticipated to alter precipitation patterns, which could lead to in increased frequency and severity of flooding events that threaten populations and infrastructure. Comprehending these effects is crucial for enhancing flood management measures. This research employs the hydrologic engineering center's hydrologic modeling system (HEC-HMS) in conjunction with future climate forecasts to evaluate flood hazards in Jordan's Wadi Al Mujib Basin. Climate forecasts utilize the most recent global climate models from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6), which offers different future scenarios relates to greenhouse gas emissions, known as shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Four scenarios’ data for study area were employed: SSP126 (low emissions), SSP245 (moderate emissions), SSP370 (high emissions), and SSP585 (extremely high emissions). Results indicate that higheremission scenarios (SSP370 and SSP585) lead to a significant increase in rainfall intensity and flood frequency, especially for extended storm duration and longer return periods. Peak discharge values are closely following rainfall trends, with minimal differences between observed and projected floods for the 2- and 5-year return periods under SSP245 and SSP370. However, under SSP370 and particularly SSP585, peak discharge increases substantially for the 50- and 100-year return periods, highlighting the increased risk of floods caused by increased emissions. These findings underline the importance of integrating hydrological models with climate projections for forecasting flood dangers. This methodology can assist policymakers and engineers to develop adaptable flood mitigation strategies that reduce the escalating hazards associated with climate change.
Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Floods Using Hydrological Modeling
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- Written by Esraa R. Tarawneh
- Category: Civil and Environment Engineering
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